By Angela Fritz with Avi Selk  Email

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The latest

The most obvious lesson from Thanksgiving? Public health messaging from officials and experts is not working. They told us to stay home and stay distanced, but we gathered. They told us not to travel, but we flew. 

Now they are terrified of a pandemic Christmas: If Americans repeat their Thanksgiving actions, the country’s already catastrophic situation could reach levels where hospitals are forced to choose which patients to save and which to let die, and where lockdowns become unavoidable.

A Nebraska man who was in otherwise good health didn’t take covid-19 seriously, but being hospitalized “made a believer” out of him, he said. As the number of people who are heeding guidelines trends downward, experts are debating what it will take to get Americans to shift their behavior.

Being told to stay away from family and friends at the holidays is difficult, especially during an extended public health crisis, and there is plenty of evidence that the pandemic is exacting a severe psychological toll. Depression and anxiety are up, alongside drug use and alcohol consumption. Suicidal thoughts are increasing, particularly in young adults. Here are some ways experts say we can be there for loved ones, even if we can’t be there. And a psychologist’s advice about how we can keep our own sadness from evolving into depression. 

A bipartisan group of senators unveiled an approximately $908 billion stimulus proposal Tuesday, aiming to break a months-long partisan impasse. President-elect Biden’s economic team is also planning an ambitious recovery plan.

Scott Atlas, President Trump’s pandemic adviser, resigned Monday after becoming widely disliked in the White House. Atlas embraced a controversial strategy of urging Americans to return to work and school with little restriction, and spent months feuding with the coronavirus task force’s other doctors. He was the only medical adviser the president met with regularly for several months. (Analysis: Atlas will forever be the face of surrender to the coronavirus.)

Other important news

A panel of CDC advisers will vote shortly on who will be first in line for a vaccine. What the committee is likely to recommend may differ from what some Trump administration officials want.

A fourth state confirms coronavirus outbreaks at a mink farm as the U.S. tries to avoid Denmark’s “zombiemink” disaster.

Despite the cacophony of warnings to avoid travel and gathering in large groups, the White House is planning a spate of indoor holiday parties.

Guide to the pandemic

Track deaths and confirmed cases in the U.S. and across the world. 

Vaccine tracker: These are the top ones to watch.

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How to help during the pandemic, as the holidays approach.

Your questions, answered

“With respect to the vaccines, could you explain/define what 90 or 95 percent effective really means?” — Leeann in Maryland

We’ve been getting this question a lot in the past two weeks, no doubt because of all the headlines announcing that two U.S. vaccine candidates, Pfizer/BioNTech’s and Moderna’s, each proved more than 90 percent effective in their preliminary trials.

Before vaccine developers can submit their products to the government for approval, they are required to conduct studies with many thousands of volunteers. About half of those volunteers get the real vaccine, and half get an inert placebo. Several weeks or months pass, and the researchers then count how many people in each group got sick during that time.

Per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a vaccine’s efficacy simply measures “the proportionate reduction in cases among vaccinated persons,” as compared to the group that got a placebo in the same study.

For example, Pfizer/BioNTech announced last month that out of more than 43,000 volunteers in their study, 170 people contracted covid-19. Of those 170, only eight people had received the real vaccine, and 162 had taken a placebo. Thus, the vaccine was estimated to be about 95 percent effective. In other words, the rate of disease was 95 percent lower among the vaccinated group than among the placebo group.

Moderna announced very similar results Monday: 196 volunteers in their study contracted covid-19, “of which 185 cases of covid-19 were observed in the placebo group, versus 11 cases” in the vaccinated group. That worked out to a vaccine efficacy of 94.1 percent. (If you're trying to replicate the math at home, be warned that it's more complex than simply dividing 185 by 196, but you'll be in the general ballpark.)

These results appear to be very, very strong. By comparison, seasonal flu vaccines typically have efficacy percentages in the 60s or lower. But it's important to remember they are merely measuring the results of controlled clinical studies. We won't know how well the vaccines work in the real world until and unless they are approved by the government and administered to tens of millions of Americans.

Are you participating in a trial for a vaccine or treatment? The Post wants to hear from you.

Today’s top reads

Find more stories, analysis and op-eds about the outbreak on our coronavirus page, including:

• Hungarian lawmaker resigns after police apprehend him fleeing reported ‘sex party’ amid pandemic restrictions
• Europe's schools still open, still relatively safe, through covid-19 second wave
• Black Friday, Cyber Monday sales disappoint, another sign that the economic recovery is stumbling
   

This couple relaxed their covid-19 stance and died because of it. They wished others would take it seriously. By Meryl Kornfield ●  Read more »

Heartbreaking photo shows PPE-clad doctor comforting lonely, elderly covid-19 patient By Paulina Villegas ●  Read more »

There is no reason to wait. Cancel your holiday travel plans now. Opinion ●  By Leana S. Wen ●  Read more »